Wir stellen mit unserer KickForm Fußballformel eigene, wissenschaftlich fundierte Quoten auf und vergleichen diese mit den Quoten der Buchmacher. Should you place the bet? Kurz zusammengefasst: Bookies wollen vermeiden, dass einzelne Wetten einen Mehrwert (Value) für den Kunden haben. Our KickForm Value Bets Finder can help you quickly discover Value Bets. Consequently, your wager is 2 Euros. The winning rate of kickform is quite good. For a proficient risk management you should, therefore, keep the following in mind: To use flat wager with dynamic wagers effectively and profit from the advantages of both strategies, you should keep multiple betting accounts. Wir stellen mit unserer KickForm Fußballformel eigene, wissenschaftlich fundierte Quoten auf und vergleichen diese mit den Quoten der Buchmacher. Vielmehr benötigst du ausgeklügelte Wettstrategien, die du dir durch die wissenschaftliche Analyse relevanter Zahlen und Statistiken erarbeitest. If the result is above 0, you found a Value Bet. Es liegt keine Value Bet vor. With flexible wagers, your bets are detached from your starting or current betting budget; instead, you base your betting amounts on other criteria. Uni bet Fußball: 21/04 19:00: Alavés – Villarreal Football / Spain / La Liga: Scored penalty: Ja 2. Um tatsächlich immer Profit mit dieser Methode zu machen, braucht es eine sehr gute Marktbeobachtung und eine Verteilung seiner Wetteinsätze auf verschiedene Buchmacher, die für einzelnen Eintrittsmöglichkeiten die jeweils besten Quoten anbieten. Und das sind die Boosted Odds. Yes, the return on the higher odds is greater, but doesn’t necessarily represent the better value. Nur wenn die Wette also einen Value aufweist, solltest du dein Geld darauf setzen. The numbers prove this: Home teams score 1.66 goals on average, while Away teams only reach 1.20 goals on average. Ihr seht dadurch dann auch auf den ersten Blick, in welchen Spielpaarungen sich echte Value Bets verstecken. To do this, simply swap the KickForm probability within the formula with your own value. We analysed the match with the help of our Football-Formula for you beforehand and calculated the probabilities for a win, a draw or a loss. Toby is the founder & writer of Punter2Pro. Da wir mit unserer KickForm Fußballformel eigene Quoten für Spiele berechnen, entgeht uns fast keine Value Bet. In simpler terms, betting any value bet will make you money over time. In the 5 games with more than 2.5 goals, the teams scored 8, 6, 5, 4 and 5 goals. Many bettors begin progressive betting with a small betting amount, since it grows exponentially with each loss. You may also multiply your own probability by the bookmaker’s decimal quota, and then subtract 100% from the result. Rechnet man hier richtig, macht man auf jeden Fall Profit mit der Sure Bet. 4) Include More Than Just Goals in Your Statistics. OVERVIEW. Pay special attention to: • How both teams acted in similar situations • How previous games ended when one team was considered an underdog • Whether a prolific striker or an important defender will miss the match (due to illness, injury or ban) • Whether one of the teams has already reached its goals for the season (champion, retained their ranking, etc.) Kickform is a german football calculator & translatable in english. Um der Frage auf die Spur zu kommen, wie Value Bets entstehen, schauen wir uns zunächst einmal an, wie Wettquoten überhaupt entstehen. Example (Your probability in percentage x bookmaker’s odd) ÷ 100 = Value (65% x 2.0) ÷ 100 = 1.3 The result is above 1, so this is a Value Bet. Das ist ein gängiges Verfahren und völlig normal. Value Bets bilden die Grundlage, um auf Dauer Gewinne erwirtschaften zu können. Play with dynamic wagers until you fall under your starting budget and then play with flat wagers to break your free fall. Encounters from the last 3 years are especially significant. Wir stellen mit unserer KickForm Fußballformel eigene, wissenschaftlich fundierte Quoten auf und vergleichen diese mit den Quoten der Buchmacher. Implied Probability. Scientific Analysis of Betting Strategies, 1) Take Home and Away Performances into Account 2) Take Direct Encounters into Account 3) Assess Frequency Instead of Average 4) Include More than Just Goals in your Statistics 5) Disregard Current Trends 6) Take Circumstances and Dates into Account 7) Question Exotic Bets, IV. If the result under 1, it is not a Value Bet. How the KickForm ValueBets Finder works Our Kickform Value Bets Finder is your tool to uncover value bets in no time. You might also bet on other factors, like the number of yellow cards, corners and many more; however, the most common type is betting on goals scored. Like this, you can prevent gambling away all your betting budget. So etwa bei einer Value Bet bei einem Aufeinandertreffen von Favorit und krassem Underdog. Nowadays he runs Amazon FBA businesses, writes several blogs, and specialises in online marketing. Natürlich funktioniert er am besten in Zeiten, in denen es viele verschiedene Sportevents gibt und viele Ligen und Turniere gleichzeitig stattfinden. For your next bet, you place 2% of your current budget, which now amounts to 102 Euros. Goals might be the obvious indicator for an Over / Under bet. The best bets, predictions, odds and stats for the Premiere League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Seria A, Ligue 1, SüperLig of the season / With the help of the scientifically sound KickForm prediction you can better bet on the match of Mainz against Schalke. 4) Value Bet. It may quite possibly happen that teams play offensively and score many goals for the whole season, but in a direct encounter, almost no goals are being scored. 3. You consider a winning probability of 65% to be very likely. These odds are based on winning $100 for a given bet. Deine eigene Einschätzung oder die Einschätzung von Tools mit dem KickForm ValueBet Finder führen also zu den sogenannten Value Bets, also zu hoch bewerteten Wetten. and Palace will take place at the . Therefore, your calculations often correspond with those of the bookmakers, meaning it is difficult to detect Value Bets for matches that are set to be played by Bayern, Dortmund or Schalke. But how exactly do you go about finding them? Der wichtigste Wert ist daher der „Value“-Wert, der angibt, wie „gut“ die Value Bet ist. Besonders relevant für einen Einstieg ins Wettgeschäft sind die richtige Herangehensweise … If you include more than just goals in your predictions, you can give yourself an edge over most bookies. Wenn wir also beispielsweise eine Fußballwette in der Bundesliga hernehmen und Bayern gegen Wolfsburg spielt, errechnet der Algorithmus des Sportwettenanbieters eine Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit der Bayern gewinnt, eine Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass das Spiel unentschieden ausgeht und eine Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit der Wolfsburg gewinnt. Aside from surebets, positive middles also emerge. Unlike a coin toss, we do not know the precise probability for a given outcome. Odds. Converting Odds to Probability. Anschließend berechnet man mit einer Formel, wie viel seines Gesamteinsatzes man auf die einzelnen Möglichkeiten verteilt. You might be able discover attractive bets with the help of research and our KickForm ValueBets Finder; however, the final result of the match and whether you win your bet depends on many other factors, as well as chance. Apart from data and facts which directly concern the match, it is also a good idea to question the bookmaker’s odds for Over/Under bets. Wir alle wissen, dass es beim Wetten um Wahrscheinlichkeiten geht. To summarise, sports betting with value included in prediction tips should statistically lead to success. Matt Brocklebank tipped winners at 7/2 and 11/4 on Monday - check out his Tuesday selections including a Nap at Sedgefield. Denn bei größeren Events, die ein riesiges öffentliches Interesse hervorrufen, werden die Quoten für die einzelnen Ereignisse mit großer Sorgfalt ermittelt. Bei der Simulation kam im Mittel mehr als eine Verdopplung des Kapitals pro Saison heraus. Dynamic wagers not only facilitate an exponential increase of your profits, but also your losses. On the other hand, a few lost bets don’t hurt them as much, since their budget shrinks at a slower rate. If the odds are high enough, you might as well reduce the increase of said betting amount. Therefore, you have to take the statistics of Home and Away matches into account for Over/Under bets. Odds correlate to probability. Liegt das Ergebnis bei über 0, handelt es sich um eine Value Bet. Both alternatives reduce your risk and therefore, the risk of loss. Betting a Favorite: The odds for favorites will have a minus (-) sign, and represent the money you need to risk to win $100. So they are available when you think the likelihood of an event is much higher than the betting provider assumed. Die KickForm-Vorhersagen basieren auf einem statistischen Verfahren zur Prognose von Fußballspielen entwickelt von Physik-Professor Andreas Heuer. Bei niedrigklassigen Events ist das manchmal nicht der Fall. Das Ergebnis liegt über 0, der KickForm ValueBets Finder hat eine Value Bet entdeckt. There’s no clear answer to this. The most common formula is the following: Value= (Probability*Decimal Odds)-1. A high number of scored goals or goal opportunities does not always recur in future matches, as there many different opponent factors (such as attitude and rank within the league) that have a significant impact on the number of goals. Wo sind sie versteckt? For each €10 bet the expected return is €11 (a profit of €1). KickForm ValueBet = ((KickForm Wahrscheinlichkeit in Prozent x Buchmacherquote): 100) - 1. Deposit Bonus for New Customers. That way you can test both strategies. Das nennen wir Algorithm Recommendation. However, our experience has also taught us that you have much better chances of finding bets with a high value in lower League matches as in the third Liga. This effect of raised coefficients realizes another way of making money – using value bets. Underdog Value Bet. Comparing odds on different bookmakers to find Value Bets. Our betting philosophy is that a bet is a value bet if the odds are higher than the odds for the same bet at the betting exchanges. However, it can only take a few lost bets until the bettor has lost all their money. Instead, look at the last 20 matches of the team in question, and check how often they scored Over or Under 2.5 goals. Denn ihr solltet vor allem bei der Vermischung von Kombiwetten und Value Bets aufpassen. Honestly, it’s that’s quick! Liegt der Wert unter 0, kannst du die Finger von der Wette lassen. Bookmakers will very often offer the classic Over 2.5-goals or Under 2.5-goals selections. Der KickForm ValueBets Finder funktioniert intuitiv und spuckt euch in kürzester Zeit eine Menge ValueBets aus. Don’t just take one or two encounters between the two teams into account; analyse at least 3 games. Nur, weil hier eine Quote zu hoch ausfällt, heißt das noch nicht im Umkehrschluss, dass ihr die Wette auch kombinieren solltet und sich diese Value Bet dann lohnen wird. The start of every betting strategy presents the challenge of detecting Value Bets from variety of bets on the market - they form the basis to steadily generate profit. Therefore, in the long run, flat wagers are suited for more cautious bettors who want to play it safe. 2) Convert odds to probability. If you want to place successful wagers consistently, it is important to do extensive research before each bet. This may be the result of the tactical line-up or the situation in the league. Example: You start with a betting budget of 100 Euros and put 2% of your budget on your first bet. Bet: wager 5 Euros – lost 2. You can alternatively utilise your own assessment to detect Value Bets. What should you take into account? Do not analyse matches that are too outdated. If you would rather take a more cautious approach and try your luck for some time, flat wagers are better suited to you. Aber trotzdem kann in jedem Sportevent alles passieren, das ist der Reiz des Ganzen. This way, you will immediately recognise which fixtures contain Value Bets. Both consequently turn out higher than in the case of flat wagers. For these type of bets, you need enough betting capital and a high risk disposition. Der KickForm ValueBets Finder wurde extra für euch entwickelt, um euch so einfach wie möglich die besten und lohnendsten Value Bets zu präsentieren. Wir machen uns den Run um diese besten Quoten zu Nutze. Is this a Value Bet? Bet … Such odds may only rarely be found for Over/Under bets on 2.5 goals, but they can be found for more exotic bets such as Over/Under 4.5 goals. Value bets give opportunities to make a profit by placing bets systematically on overvalued odds. Nicht umsonst setzen passionierte Wett-Freunde gerne auf die Strategie der Value Bets. Die Buchmacher bieten dir eine Quote von 2,0 an. Many bettors take the factor of risk into account, and decide how much money they want to place depending on how safe they think their bets are. Kickform offers a football formula for the prognosis of football matches, prediction scores for various outcomes and also a value bet finder. Free Football Betting Tips WinDrawWin is the best source of free football betting tips and football predictions and betting statistics, football results, football statistics and trends. Was wir euch selbstverständlich nicht verheimlichen wollen, ist, dass es beim Ermitteln von Value Bets auch gewisse Schwierigkeiten geben kann. Only profitable value bets of the day. The best bets, predictions, odds and stats for the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Seria A, Ligue 1, SüperLig of the season 2019/2020. Denn wer darauf schielt, den Kunden die attraktivsten Wettquoten auf dem Markt anzubieten, dem passiert es manchmal, dass die Quote eben nicht niedriger als die errechnete Wahrscheinlichkeit, sondern höher angesetzt wird. You should keep doing so until you win the bet. überprüft die hier angegebenen Quoten. More cautious players who work with flat wagers need a longer “run” to decisively increase their budget. They enable you to distinguish in detail how likely it is that 2 or 3 goals are struck. You should put money on this match. Let’s consider a simple bet, a 2-way tennis match between two equal players, where each of them has a 50% chance of winning. In Away games, however, only in every third match were over 2.5 goals scored. Unser KickForm ValueBets Finder findet automatisch wissenschaftlich fundierte Value Bets für dich. First, assess probability then look at the odds. Oft sind es nur ganz kleine Beiträge und man braucht relativ hohe Einsätze, damit es sich lohnt, aber wer Geduld und das nötige Kleingeld hat, der ist bei dieser Methode gut aufgehoben. 3) Judge that probability. Always consider many factors. Remember that most bettors only go by the end results of matches, and that bookmakers use this attitude for the creation of their odds. So if you're betting on the Packers at -140 against the Vikings, that means Green Bay is a slight favorite. Und vor allem will jeder Wettanbieter am liebsten die attraktivsten Quoten anbieten. Which strategy will make you successful in the long run? If you have won a bet, stick to your last wager. We identify accurate probabilities for football matches using big data, mathematical models and algorithms to help our members gain an edge over the bookies. How many goalscoring opportunities does the opponent need on average to score a goal against said team? Our value bets are calculated from bookmaker's market difference in comparison to its competing companies. This is mainly because bookmakers calculate their odds for the world’s top leagues very thoroughly and in detail. BetBurger™. All football predictions at Sports Betting Lad include fixtures from the toughest leagues and competitions in the world including the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue One, Championship, Champions League, Europa League and more. Wenn euer Interesse geweckt ist, könnt ihr euch in unserem Erfahrungsbericht über Sure Bets austoben und mehr darüber erfahren. The following example from the 2014-2015 season shows that these factors have a larger predictive value than the number of goals scored on average in the whole season (so Home and Away matches combined): Example Hoffenheim often played with different tactical line-ups during Home and Away games. (55% x 2.0) ÷ 100 = 1.1 As we can see, the result has amounted to more than 1, so we have found a Value Bet. Dahinter steckt ein ausgeklügelter Algorithmus. (65% x 1.80) – 100% = 17% The result amounts to more than 0, so you found a Value Bet. To check whether you found a Value Bet, multiply our calculated KickForm probability in percentage by the bookmaker’s odds. The following value bet table is sorted by the resulting profit. If you end up above your former starting budget, you can then switch back to dynamic wagers again. 2. A 4/1 bet is expected to win one in every five attempts, therefore the probability is 20%. Avoid betting blindly - calculate the commission that the bookmaker charges. Wettanbieter sind wie wir alle nicht fehlerfrei. Among these 12 matches, there were 7 matches with less than 2.5 goals (and only 5 with more than 2.5 goals). any odds 1.01 - 10.00 10.01 - 20.00 > 20.00. If you want to consistently profit off your bets, it is important to set up a good risk management strategy that protects your capital prevents it from decreasing. With dynamic wagers, you are not guided by your starting budget.