Chance of winning. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. Florida, Iowa, ME-2 and Ohio move to Leans Republican; Georgia and North Carolina to Leans Democratic. Massachusetts Governor - Baker vs. This is an election forecast widget. November 2: Alaska moves from Likely to Leans Republican; Georgia from Leans Republican to Toss-up; Indiana from Safe to Likely Republican. US election: Trump’s attorneys appeal in Pennsylvania. The 2016 party winner is used where there are no polls. The Republican National Committee on Thursday came out swinging against Democrats’ For the People Act of 2021, known as H.R. Click here to see the presidential forecast. The final ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Politico. Health Care. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. The chart below shows which states are the closest, and which ones will decide the election. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (90%+). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. US Election 2020: Tense wait as US election winner remains unclear. PRIVACY ABOUT US Note that NPR is using the 'Likely' terminology to cover what others call both 'Likely' and 'Safe'. The final electoral college ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Larry Sabato and the team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. This is who we think will win. © 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. You can view the full series of three maps here. We build a widget that shows the forecast of who will win the US Presidential Election 2020. ... A Look at Your National Forecast. Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. Joe Biden: 27%. The Electoral College is the process in which the United States elects its president. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from Inside Elections. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. NEW: 2020 US Elections & Beyond Report . October 28: Georgia and North Carolina move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic; Texas from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day. We rated every race in play in 2020. We’ve made it, everyone: these are the 2020 United States presidential election predictions. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. Looking for the national forecast? States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. Mar 31, 2021, 7:11 am EDT. All rights reserved. The site also features a series of explainers about how presidents are actually elected in the United States. Electoral College. Chance of winning. A decisive Biden win is likely. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. 2020 United States Presidential Election Predictions and Results. Safe is 15% or higher. US presidential election is not over yet, with Biden getting more electors, but Trump ready to fight. © 2021 Electoral Ventures LLC. We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls — the forecast will get less uncertain.
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